Monday, November 3, 2008

Final Predictions

Call me irrationally exuberant, but I think the mainstream press has completely missed the story of Barack Obama's massive advantage in field operations, and I think the "likely voter" screens employed by the major polling firms are, as a result, dramatically under-counting Obama's support.

...And I won't keep you hanging in suspense any longer, no: I don't think it'll be enough to carry Arizona. But I do think Mr. Obama will win a larger share of the electoral vote than almost anyone is giving him credit for, including carriage of some states that even a few short months ago would've seemed literally unthinkable as part of any blue wave. In my last act in a country that has never elected a black man, I am calling Obama's total at 385. He will win all of the Kerry states (yes, including Pennsylvania), together with Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, and Virginia -- those will surprise no one. A few might be surprised by his capture of Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina, but early voting tells the story of these three and they're all going blue.

Early voting, too, is telling the story in a state no one's talking about, the first big surprise of tomorrow night, Georgia. Senator Obama will win it--indeed will win it by a margin comfortable enough to permit the networks to call it essentially the moment the polls close, and to that extent it will set a tone that will have domino effects out west, as disheartened Republicans step out of long voting lines and go home. After Georgia falls, nothing will save Mr. McCain's hopes of preserving victory in North Dakota or Montana, and by that time Indiana will have been called for Senator Obama as well. (Field operations, not early voting, will win Obama the Hoosier state.)

Below is your final prediction for the electoral map. Tomorrow I'll be live-blogging the results, complete with a state-by-state lighting of the map. Now go vote.

Dave O'Gorman
("The Key Grip")
Gainesville, Florida


Anonymous said...

Your keypad to G*d's ears, Dave...

nowherem said...

You're within a hundred and fifty-three of correct.

isuyankee said...

I hope (and believe) you are right. Great job covering the campaign start to finish. You have talent.

Dave O'Gorman said...

I'm "within a hundred fifty-three of correct" both made me laugh and got me thinking: Everyone should log-in with their own prediction.

Anonymous said...

I'm pretty conservative by nature, so using the NPR electoral map I changed the current polling numbers and gave Obama:

New Mexico

and McCain:


And lo-and-behold - the EVs came out 269-269. Let's hope my predictions are far too conservative for what will transpire today!


isuyankee said...

Obama wins with 353 EVs.

Dave O'Gorman said...

The 353 number has been dogging me as well -- Kerry + IA + NM + CO + VA + OH + FL + NC, but not IN, MO, ND, MT, or GA.

On the other hand, when the Democrat wins Dicksville Notch by a landslide, you might be looking at a *very* early night.

Dave O'Gorman said...

Oops -- left NV out of that 353 tally, which is necessary to make 353.